ITM7: What Does Trump's Comeback Mean for American Politics?

Ian: 00:00:19

With reaction and insights to the biggest stories and breaking news from the usa and a little bit of history thrown in.

Ian: 00:00:26

This is America, A history in the making.

Ian: 00:00:37

Hello, and welcome to another episode of America, A History in the Making.

Ian: 00:00:42

I am joined on this podcast by a recent guest, Farida Jalousai, who's the Associate Dean for Global Initiatives and Engagement in the College of Liberal Arts and Human Sciences and Professor of Political Science at Virginia Tech.

Ian: 00:00:55

We chatted about whether America will ever elect a woman for president.

Ian: 00:01:00

And that was before the election.

Ian: 00:01:02

So, Farida, I'm delighted to have you back on the show to now reflect a bit on what's actually happened.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:01:07

It's my pleasure to be here and talk to you.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:01:10

There's a lot to unpack still.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:01:12

I haven't processed everything, to be sure, but I'm happy to try to make as much sense out of it as I can.

Ian: 00:01:22

Yes, it's one of those, isn't it?

Ian: 00:01:25

I think maybe, maybe this is just what Democrat voters think versus what Republican voters think.

Ian: 00:01:32

But it just, they always felt just a little bit implausible that Trump would actually get back in.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:01:41

Just closer to the time of the actual election, there was just, I think, more and more signs that there was going to be a very close contest.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:01:51

So for me, the closer the election came and there was just more indications, when we're thinking about public opinion polls, the increased tightening of the race, it just to me indicated that there was probably a very good chance, actually, that the Harris campaign was ultimately going to come up short.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:02:11

And now we're in the process, of course, as a country, really, as a world, we're in the process of grappling, of grappling with why, why the results occurred the way that they did.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:02:24

What, to what extent did the Harris campaign make different tactical errors, for example, to what extent did the Harris campaign focus on issues that were not as much of concern to at least a large enough people for her to win?

Farida Jalalzai: 00:02:44

And of course, given my area of emphasis, I think about the role of gender, the role of race in the election outcomes.

Ian: 00:02:54

And on the subject of gender in politics, one statistic I saw was that I believe 53% of women voted for Donald Trump.

Ian: 00:03:03

And I was trying to understand why.

Ian: 00:03:06

But there's something that really stuck with me when I was watching all of the election coverage and the reaction to it.

Ian: 00:03:13

Someone did point out that actually, if you're a woman in America and you're struggling to pay the bills, are you going to vote for the person that's promising to make abortion legal and, you know, available to everyone, or are you going to vote for the person who's promising to lower taxes and, you know, put more money in your pocket day to day?

Ian: 00:03:36

If that's the choice you're having to make, then you can kind of see how in a lot of women's minds, actually, the rational choice would have been to vote for, for Trump.

Ian: 00:03:46

Right.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:03:47

Depending on the circumstances.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:03:49

But of course, what we know is that there is a tendency for women and men to vote differently overall.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:03:55

So when we're thinking about that, but also being mindful of just the sheer diversity among women as a group, there's just different things to different layers to really peel back.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:04:07

So I think, Ian, you said, if I'm not mistaken, did you say that a majority of women voted for Trump?

Ian: 00:04:12

Someone told me that 53% of women voters.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:04:16

So I'm thinking that what they were maybe saying was that a majority of white women voted for Trump.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:04:22

That's what I'm thinking.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:04:24

And it's not to dismiss that, but that's an important distinction.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:04:27

what we do know is that since: 1980

Farida Jalalzai: 00:04:50

And so what was interesting about this year was that there was so much emphasis on what people perceived to be was, wow, this giant gender gap.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:04:59

And maybe some had seemingly discovered this for the first time.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:05:03

And I thought, well, hold on, hold on a second.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:05:07

Number one, this gap has existed for many decades at this point, but even then, some years, the gender gap is wider than others.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:05:17

And so it's been as narrow as, I think, maybe 4% some years.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:05:22

And I want to say: 2020

Farida Jalalzai: 00:05:31

This year, when we looked at the polling data before the election actually happened, there were a lot of people that were, I think, overemphasizing how there was going to be this gap in terms of women and men.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:05:47

And I think many of us in my field thought, well, you know, of course, it all depends on turnout.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:05:53

And certainly one of the things that we will want to talk about, Ian, are the strategies that both campaigns try to use to curry support within the different types of gender groups.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:06:06

%, and that actually since: 2000

Farida Jalalzai: 00:06:26

And Trump, though, among white women, his support declined a little bit.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:06:31

So I just want to put it out there that there are lots of, I guess, differences within these groups when we're thinking about gender groups and also dividing that in terms of race and ethnic groups.

Ian: 00:06:47

Yeah, and thank you for that distinction.

Ian: 00:06:50

I think that's really important in understanding kind of the breakdown of the electorate.

Ian: 00:06:55

I think, though, fundamentally what I'm really struggling with is this idea that Trump, who is now a convicted felon, he's had, I mean, I don't think he's been convicted of any of sexual assault, but he certainly, he's got a lot of clouds looming over him in that regard.

Ian: 00:07:14

He's just.

Ian: 00:07:15

His treatment of just people is questionable.

Ian: 00:07:22

How is someone like Trump able to just break so many precedents and win a presidential election?

Farida Jalalzai: 00:07:33

You are asking a question, Ian, that I have no answer to.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:07:40

It's something that, of course, we've talked about just in our own little.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:07:46

In our own groups and our conversations that we have with people in our lives, our partners.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:07:52

And I make real sense out of it when we're thinking about things like competency, for example, when we're thinking about things regarding who would just be more presidential.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:08:06

To me, of course, the right choice would have been Kamala Harris.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:08:10

And there is this aspect of Trump where, yeah, he defies it all.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:08:15

He can come in without any type of political experience.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:08:20

He can come in saying that he is a successful businessman, which we know that itself is a matter of real debate about how successful he's really been.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:08:36

And this idea that somehow he's self made.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:08:40

I think he tries to put out there that he's self made when we know that he's not.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:08:45

And just enough, I think people were not super concerned about anything other than economics or at least this perception that they felt that change was necessary.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:09:01

Any change was necessary.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:09:04

And of course, the lack of popularity of Joe Biden is very important to the story.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:09:11

And so but to try to make sense out of why he has the ability to just continually defy what we would logically think would be hard and fast rules about who is eligible.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:09:26

Just even when we think about who has the basic building blocks of a good president and he also wasn't.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:09:35

I don't think it's controversial for me to say he wasn't very successful as a president.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:09:40

And that's in part evidenced by how he lose it.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:09:45

Well, of course, that's a matter of some debate with Trump supporters.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:09:49

But he loses the election in: 2020

Farida Jalalzai: 00:09:53

And I do, I do come back to just being able to somehow appeal to enough people where they don't care that much about those transgressions.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:10:10

And he's clever.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:10:12

When we're thinking about pitting group against group, meaning pitting young men against women, pitting men against women, being able to convince a large enough percentage of, let's say, Latinos that their lives are going to be better economically under him, and again, using all of these different types of zero sum game arguments that you're losing right now under them.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:10:42

And I will be the person who lifts you up.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:10:45

And so if you were to ask me, is this true?

Farida Jalalzai: 00:10:48

I mean, is this what he's really going to do?

Farida Jalalzai: 00:10:50

And we know that, no, it's not true.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:10:53

He's not going to do this.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:10:55

And so we keep coming back, or I keep coming back to the.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:10:59

But wow.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:11:00

There is very little discussion about but is he really going to do these things to lift up some of the groups that supported him this time that were normally part of the Democratic base?

Farida Jalalzai: 00:11:13

I just don't, I don't get it.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:11:15

I can't make sense out of it.

Ian: 00:11:16

Yeah, I agree.

Ian: 00:11:19

It's lost all meaning on me everything that's happened in the last year or so.

Ian: 00:11:23

eddling about the election in: 2020

Ian: 00:11:46

They have.

Ian: 00:11:46

And he's won by what they would consider a landslide.

Ian: 00:11:49

So actually, all of this stuff has now moved from the realm of conspiracy theory to, well, maybe he was right.

Ian: 00:11:59

And then what, what else is he right about?

Farida Jalalzai: 00:12:01

Right.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:12:02

ct that because he, he won in: 2024

Farida Jalalzai: 00:12:41

Right.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:12:41

The transition of power where he didn't cooperate with Biden when Biden was coming in, to say the least.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:12:50

But there were, I think, a lot of concerns about what would happen.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:12:54

Right.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:12:55

Either way, for among some Republicans if Kamala Harris claimed victory.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:13:01

And of course, there were people who were concerned among Harris supporters that if she claimed a victory that this was automatically going to go to the election rigging again.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:13:16

And what I can say is that, yeah, to me, this just sort of confirms that there are a large enough group of people that still believe in this pretend rigged election.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:13:31

And I would, I would, Well, I shouldn't say anything 100%, but I would be very surprised if Kamala Harris said one, that there, that that wouldn't have just triggered all of these protests and something similar, if not worse, to January, to.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:13:52

Yeah, to January 6th.

Ian: 00:13:54

Yeah.

Ian: 00:13:54

And I think now, of course, it's all hypothetical with regards to what Trump would have done had he lost.

Ian: 00:14:00

But, but, I mean, there's, there's a very clear precedence for what he would have done if he lost.

Ian: 00:14:05

And I, I just worry now about what the next four years could mean for America because it's very easy to say things on a campaign.

Ian: 00:14:17

And we saw Trump change, very deliberately change his messaging around abortion when he realized that he was losing women voters.

Ian: 00:14:27

And you can't tell me that he suddenly had this coincidental change of heart in the midst of a presidential campaign.

Ian: 00:14:35

hese questions around Project: 2025

Ian: 00:14:42

Because if it's as much as what some people are suspecting, I mean, I say we, you and America are in for a rough ride over the next four years.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:14:51

Yeah, that's the understatement of the century.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:14:57

It's going to be, it's going to be a really rough ride.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:15:00

And it, of course, is dependent on who he's, who Trump really wants to reward, I guess, is he, I don't think he's going to try to appeal to independents or people who were maybe, of course, less conservative.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:15:21

The middle will say, I don't think that's his play.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:15:23

I think he's going to reward what are the people who are just in his extreme right voting group.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:15:34

hich was, I think, unknown in: 2016

Farida Jalalzai: 00:15:47

Was he just playing a role?

Farida Jalalzai: 00:15:49

Did he really mean these things and then he was in office and.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:15:52

No, he, he meant it.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:15:54

He wasn't playing a role.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:15:56

And so we know this about him.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:15:58

And so if past experience is a gauge, a predictor of future, Absolutely, there's every reason to be concerned.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:16:07

And then we know that if, if he has both the majority of the House, which I guess it looks like he will, and we know that they have a Senate majority there's going to be a lot of freedom, I guess, to implement all of these different types of aspects of extreme conservatism.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:16:33

I'm curious.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:16:34

When he's picking people to be part of the administration, whether just his advisors or his members of Cabinet, every indication that we have is that he is going to try to do as much as he can to put people in positions of power who are vengeful, who are going to help with this type of conservative agenda.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:17:00

And he's a lame duck.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:17:02

So that provides, again, a lot of incentive for him to try to get away with as much as he can.

Ian: 00:17:11

Yeah.

Ian: 00:17:12

And, you know, not.

Ian: 00:17:13

Not just having, you know, both houses under his control, but, you know, the fact that the, the Supreme Court have, have given him immunity now against, you know, I mean, he, he's the most powerful president in terms of having both the Senate and Congress on his side, having been given political immunity from the Supreme Court, which basically means, you know, this is a guy that said on the campaign trail that he's going to go after the people that, that were against him.

Ian: 00:17:47

He can now do that in broad daylight, call them a enemy of the country, and have absolutely no repercussions from that.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:17:57

Yeah, you're right.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:17:58

I agree.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:17:59

It's scary.

Ian: 00:18:00

Yeah.

Ian: 00:18:01

I mean, it just, it really raises the question of what, what checks should be in place for a president and, and how much power is too much when you have a man like Trump in the White House who has not only said what he wants to do, but has demonstrated it in those first four years.

Ian: 00:18:28

And, I mean, I know we're both sitting here as supporters of Harris, so of course we have a bias, but Trump just doesn't sit right with me as a person.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:18:41

Right.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:18:42

That's where it is.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:18:43

I mean, there are Republicans that have been in office that I may not have agreed with completely on, on different aspects of their agenda, to be sure.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:18:52

But I could definitely say that I still thought that they had some of the traits that a president should display.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:19:03

There was just very little evidence, say, for example, until now, that when there were just at least codes.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:19:15

There's just these basic codes that you followed, and this is gone.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:19:20

And I think Trump makes this just more normalize this type of behavior.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:19:28

The ways that he knocks people down, the way that he bullies people, and the people that he surrounds himself with who do that and do that time and time again, did it this election will continue to do this during his presidency and enable and enable him and promote him.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:19:49

And there's a shift and he's very responsible when we're thinking about just the breakdown and just in empathy.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:20:01

Right.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:20:01

Political empathy.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:20:04

That should still exist, but it doesn't.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:20:07

I'm not saying across the board, but I just mean he's given.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:20:12

I think through his actions, this.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:20:15

He's convinced enough people that this type of behavior is.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:20:19

Is fine.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:20:20

Is normal.

Ian: 00:20:21

I agree.

Ian: 00:20:22

And it's.

Ian: 00:20:23

It's the complete disregard of convention and of precedence from Trump that if it just doesn't suit him, he's gonna ignore it.

Ian: 00:20:36

That, I think, just really undermines the role of the presidency, you know, and it's the little things as well.

Ian: 00:20:43

after he won the election in: 2020

Ian: 00:21:01

And, you know, we're recording this on the Monday after the election.

Ian: 00:21:06

In just a couple of days, Biden is, you know, hosting Trump at the White House to do that.

Ian: 00:21:11

So, you know, every other president in history, regardless of whether or not they've agreed with the outcome, have respected the democratic process and made sure that that transition of power was effective.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:21:27

Yeah.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:21:28

This is the.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:21:28

This is the Trump era.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:21:30

It continues.

Ian: 00:21:31

Yeah.

Ian: 00:21:31

Yeah.

Ian: 00:21:32

I mean.

Ian: 00:21:33

Yeah.

Ian: 00:21:34

I mean, what's the future for American politics, like, if Trump can.

Ian: 00:21:38

If Trump can have four years, be voted out, and then stage perhaps the most remarkable comeback in American politics, What's.

Ian: 00:21:49

What's next?

Farida Jalalzai: 00:21:52

I don't know, Ian.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:21:53

I don't know.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:21:54

I really.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:21:55

I don't know.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:21:55

I think part of me has hope.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:21:59

Part of me is hopeful that the same.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:22:02

When we're thinking about, just at least when he's able to appeal to groups that he normally would struggle with, but do well enough among those groups that he gets enough support to gain victory, that we're a fickle people.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:22:20

And there's an opportunity in the midterm elections, of course, to change the dynamics of.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:22:31

Of Congress, for example.

Ian: 00:22:33

Yeah.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:22:34

And there's the opportunity two years later to vote in a Democrat again.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:22:40

But one of the things we have to assess which we won't have answers to is how.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:22:46

How really loyal are these new voters?

Farida Jalalzai: 00:22:49

Are we really in a partisan realignment or not?

Farida Jalalzai: 00:22:53

And so we just don't know.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:22:55

And we also.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:22:57

I don't want to.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:22:58

I mean, I don't want to just blame Democrats and the Democratic Party or the Democratic candidate, Kamala Harris, but there are questions that the party has to answer.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:23:10

And what is the future of the leadership of that party.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:23:13

What does that look like?

Farida Jalalzai: 00:23:14

What does that entail?

Farida Jalalzai: 00:23:16

And there's a lot of, there's a lot of work that needs to be done or you're going to continue to see the dominance of the Republican Party in some of the states where, at least briefly, I mean, Biden was able to win.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:23:32

And now we're back to most of the map of the previous, the previous loss.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:23:37

Right.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:23:37

Where Kamala Harris and Hillary Clinton did poorly in many of the same places.

Ian: 00:23:44

But it's interesting, though, because four years ago, you know, we were saying that Joe Biden's win means, you know, the Republicans are going to have to move more to the center to find their voters again.

Ian: 00:23:57

And actually, Trump has just steamrolled in, doubled down on the MAGA messaging and turned it around four years later.

Ian: 00:24:06

And now everyone's saying, oh, the Democrats need to look at what's happened and potentially move a bit more into the center to appeal to the right voters.

Ian: 00:24:15

But actually, like Trump's proven that you, you don't need to do that.

Ian: 00:24:20

So I, I'm not sure what the answer is here for the Democrats.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:24:24

Yeah, that's, I don't know.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:24:26

I wish that I knew because there's just, there's just a lot of, there's just a lot of unknowns.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:24:33

And we, I think there would be plenty of Democrats that would be less than satisfied if what this meant was that Democratic presidential candidates had to essentially be almost right, just right of center.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:24:51

Right.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:24:52

So that would be, that would be heartbreaking and it would not represent a lot of the population in the United States in terms of their concern with more progressive agendas.

Ian: 00:25:04

Yeah, I agree.

Ian: 00:25:05

And, and as you say, you know, there's, there's so many unknowns still.

Ian: 00:25:08

And I don't think we're going to have answers to any of these questions until we see how a Trump second term plays out, until we see how the Democrats are responding.

Ian: 00:25:19

And, and I hate being one of those people that immediately starts talking about the next election as soon as the last ones happen.

Ian: 00:25:25

But I think, you know, that's the reality.

Ian: 00:25:28

Right.

Ian: 00:25:28

The Democrats have to take stock and start thinking about 20, 28.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:25:32

Lots of, lots of soul searching, lots of number crunching, too, I think is necessary.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:25:39

And yeah, Ian, I can't even think about the next election.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:25:44

It's just too exhausting to have gone through this.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:25:48

But it's important.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:25:49

We need to really, we need to unpack all of this.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:25:53

Absolutely.

Ian: 00:25:54

Yeah.

Ian: 00:25:55

Well, hopefully you'll be able to join us on future episodes as we, as we discuss the issues around Trump and American politics, which I'm sure, particularly from, you know, issues around gender are not going to go away anytime soon.

Ian: 00:26:12

Thank you, Farida, for joining me on the podcast and also recently, which I'll link to in the show notes when we discuss in more detail about will America ever elect a woman for president?

Ian: 00:26:21

The answer currently stands at no, but there's a, there's a lot of pending there.

Ian: 00:26:26

But for anyone that wants to connect with you after this podcast, where can they do that?

Farida Jalalzai: 00:26:32

They can connect with me on LinkedIn under my name, Farida Jalalzai.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:26:37

And then I'm also on X.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:26:40

So do you want me to spell my name or is this going to be available on your site?

Ian: 00:26:45

I'll link it.

Ian: 00:26:46

I'll link it.

Ian: 00:26:47

It's fine.

Farida Jalalzai: 00:26:47

That would be great.

Ian: 00:26:49

Yeah, that's great.

Ian: 00:26:50

And yeah, thank you as always for joining me and anyone listening to the show.

Ian: 00:26:54

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Ian: 00:26:58

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Ian: 00:27:04

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Ian: 00:27:10

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Ian: 00:27:22

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Ian: 00:27:26

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Ian: 00:27:31

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You'll unlock some awesome perks and it helps us to keep the show going, which we really appreciate.

Ian: 00:27:46

Thanks again for listening and until next time in pod, we trust.